How Votes Are Breaking in Georgia — and Why Democrats Have a Chance to Win
If you’re reading this post, you probably live outside the state of Georgia and care a lot about the outcome of the January 5th election that will decide control of the Senate.
Polls are helpful…sometimes. What’s most interesting to me at this stage, with these two races, is early voting data. Vote From Home is focused on knocking doors, sending texts, and making calls to mobilize Georgia votes. I’m encouraged by who is requesting ballots and turning out to vote early, but I also want everyone to see where we have more work to do.
You can take a look at the data here (which I’ll update periodically) and then empower local, organizers and canvassers to safely knock doors in their own communities so we can win in Georgia. Our “Give The Gift of Door Knocking” promotion directly funds Vote From Home’s Savannah canvassing program, that we’re running in partnership with the New Georgia Project Action Fund.
Why I’m (Cautiously) Optimistic
Likely Democratic voters comprise over 46% of all votes cast in the runoff, compared with nearly 45% for likely Republicans. This margin is actually better than it looks though when you compare it to Biden’s final margin in the state, where likely Democrats made up just 40% of his winning coalition. In the general election, the remainder of Biden’s vote share likely came from what our data classifies as “likely Independent” voters. If we look at that combined share of the current electorate, the Democratic lead could be as high as 10 points now. (55% — 45%).
The overperformance among Likely Dems is being driven largely by the fact that Black voters are a greater proportion of the current votes cast to date than overall in the general election electorate. Again, this is a really encouraging metric, but also one we predict will taper down once we get the “red wave” of Republicans voting on Election Day.
Warning Signs
While Democrats’ requests of absentee ballots eclipse Republicans’, the performance of early voters is much closer to an even split of D vs. R. Unfortunately, we’ve seen early vote locations close in Democratic areas, leaving voters with fewer options for casting their ballots early in-person.
Additionally, there are fewer Republicans requesting absentee ballots but they are returning their ballots at a slightly higher rate than Democrats. This is where on-the-ground turnout matters, and Vote From Home is knocking doors in Georgia along with sending texts and making calls to “chase” these requested ballots and get Democrats to vote.
Reaching Young Voters
Voting so far is being driven by 65+ voters. This isn’t necessarily a bad sign for Democrats — given how the overall votes are breaking indicating that Democratic turnout in this demographic is up — but it shows we must continue reaching out to voters aged 18–34, letting them know their vote is vital in what will be a close election.
Absentee and early voting data do not, in any way, predict who is going to win. With two weeks until the election, this data shows turnout is key given how many Dems still have yet to return their absentee ballots and where we must boost early voting turnout so we can elect Reverend Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
This work and this election will determine the fate of the incoming Biden presidency. Whether Mitch McConnell will remain in power to stymie our efforts towards progress and healing this country, or whether President-Elect Biden has the backing in Congress to move his agenda. There is a lot of good news in this data, and I encourage you to follow along with it, but the biggest unknown variable still is the looming likelihood of high Repubilcan turnout on Election Day. We have to keep our foot on the gas over the next two weeks to build on these initial returns. The outcome of this election will depend on it.
